97th Academy Awards: 2024 Oscar Predictions Post

2024 OSCARS PREDICTIONS

The 97th Academy Awards are upon us and anyone with half a brain in their head and any semblance of a life doesn’t even remotely give a flying fuck.

Unfortunately, I do not meet the previously stated requirements…so here we are at my Oscar predictions post.

As long-time readers know I am the proud owner of the longest Oscar predictions winning streak in history…and even more remarkably, this is not just the longest winning streak in Oscar history, but the longest winning streak of any kind in any competition….EVER!

What’s it like to be the greatest Oscar predictor of all time? Thanks for asking…the reality is that it’s a blessing and a curse. It’s a blessing because being great at anything is a gift from God. It’s a curse because…well it’s the dumbest fucking thing in the world to be great at.

And truth be told…and this stays just between us…I really have no idea what I’m doing. Of course, that works to my benefit because the members of the Academy who vote on the Oscars have no idea what they’re doing either, so I guess that’s why I succeed in reading their diseased minds.

Every year the trade papers in Hollywood publish interviews with anonymous Academy members in the hopes of deciphering who will win the awards. These interviews are extraordinary because they always reveal Academy members as being the biggest dopes, dupes and dipshits on the planet.

It's nice to fantasize that Academy members are dedicated professionals who take their craft, their art, cinema and the film community seriously…and then you read these interviews and realize these people are lazy and entitled pieces of shit with the worst taste imaginable.

My favorite part is that these people get to see all the nominated movies for free…in their home…and they still don’t watch them, or they watch just fifteen minutes of them.

Then there’s the mindlessly political pricks who won’t vote for anything that doesn’t have the “correct”, and most obvious, politics. Yawn. This explains a great deal about how the Oscars work and why we get so many atrocious movies not just getting nominated, but winning big awards.

The truth is that the Oscars are nothing more than a popularity contest for the adult high school known as Hollywood. The expansion of the Academy membership in recent years in order to be more diverse and inclusive, has only heightened that sentiment.

Regardless of how ridiculous some members of the Academy are, and how diminished the Oscars have become…I still watch the movies and watch the Oscar telecast. Although if I’m being honest…there’s a very good chance that I will bail pretty early on the telecast because I’m on the East Coast and I’m an early riser. Missing the Oscars would’ve been inconceivable a few years ago…but not now. I am now indifferent to the Oscars and very protective of my precious sleep.

As for my Oscar predictions this year, I have to be honest…I have almost no idea how this year’s awards will play out. It’s been a strange year at the movies, and unfortunately not a particularly good one, so picking winners is a fool’s errand. But as you all know…I am nothing if not a fool.

So…on to my picks!!

BEST PICTURE

Anora

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Perez

I’m Still Here

Nickel Boys

The Substance

Wicked

This is a rather underwhelming collection of films, only one of which, Anora, did I think was very good. Does that mean Anora will win? You’re guess is as good as mine. If Anora doesn’t win, then Conclave will…or at least that seems to be how the Academy is shaking out. There is a miniscule chance that A Complete Unknown sneaks in out of nowhere…but I wouldn’t bet on it. If Emilia Perez or Wicked win then we have officially entered the End Times.

WILL WIN: Anora

SHOULD WIN: Anora

 BEST DIRECTOR

Sean Baker - Anora

Brady Corbet – The Brutalist

James Mangold – A Complete Unknown

Jacques Audiard – Emilia Perez

Coralie Fargeat – The Substance

Ok…this is an interesting category. Baker won the Director’s Guild award, which should give him the leg up here…but don’t be shocked if Brady Corbet or dark horse James Mangold sneak in and steal it.

WILL WIN: Sean Baker - Anora

SHOULD WIN: Sean Baker

BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody – The Brutalist

Timothee Chalamet – A Complete Unknown

Colman Domingo – Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes - Conclave

Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice

Lots of hub-bub about Timothee Chalamet and his win at the SAG Awards last weekend…but Oscar voting was over so his speech and such will have no sway. This is really a two-man race between Chalamet and Brody, but if they split votes there could be a dark horse winner in Ralph Fiennes. My guess is that two-time Holocaust survivor Adrian Brody pulls it off (this is a great Nikki Glaser joke).

WILL WIN: Adrian Brody – The Brutalist

SHOULD WIN: Colman Domingo – Sing Sing

BEST ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo – Wicked

Karla Sofia Gascon – Emilia Perez

Mikey Madison – Anora

Demi Moore – The Substance

Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here

A three-woman race between the big favorite Demi Moore, the ingenue Mikey Madison and the international, dark horse candidate Fernanda Torres.

I think Demi Moore wins it because it’s a great “comeback” story and makes Academy members feel good about themselves for some reason. Personally, I think Moore is good in the film and gives a “brave” performance, I just think Mikey Madison’s performance is much better.

WILL WIN: Demi Moore – The Substance

SHOULD WIN: Mikey Madison - Anora

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown

Ariana Grande – Wicked

Felicity Jones – The Brutalist

Isabella Rossellini – Conclave

Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez

Zoe Saldana is the big favorite…but if there’s an upset it will come from Isabella Rossellini…and maybe, maybe, maybe…from Monica Barbaro.

WILL WIN: Zoe Saldana

SHOULD WIN: Monica Barbaro

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

 Yura Borisov – Anora

Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain

Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown

Guy Pearce – The Brutalist

Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice

I was not a fan of A Real Pain and not a fan of Kieran Culkin’s performance, but this shit is set in stone.

WILL WIN: Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain

SHOULD WIN: Yura Borisov - Anora

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora – Sean Baker

The Brutalist – Brady Corbet

A Real Pain – Jesse Eisenberg

September 5 –

The Substance – Coralie Fargeat

This is a fascinating category…if Sean Baker wins this…there’s a real chance he could win four Oscars in one night (Picture, Director, Screenplay and Editing), which would be incredible…so incredible I don’t think it will happen. I think the Academy spreads the love and rewards one of their own Jesse Eisenberg with the Oscar here.

WILL WIN: Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain

SHOULD WIN: Sean Baker - Anora

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Emilia Perez

Nickel Boys

Sing Sing

Conclave is the frontrunner and presumptive winner…but if it doesn’t win then we might be in for a wild night.

WILL WIN: Conclave

SHOULD WIN: Conclave…I guess. I liked Sing Sing a lot but the script isn’t elite.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Flow

Inside Out 2

Memoir of a Snail

Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

The Wild Robot

A fascinating category…The Wild Robot is in the lead but I actually think Flow is going to win it thanks to the international contingent in the Academy.

WILL WIN: Flow

SHOULD WIN: Flow

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Emilia Perez

Flow

The Girl with the Needle

I’m Still here

The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Emilia Perez had this wrapped up a few months ago and then the Gascon scandal hit and…well…not so good for Emilia Perez after that. I now think the vociferous Brazilian contingent drags I’m Still Here over the finish line.

WILL WIN: I’m Still Here

SHOULD WIN: Flow – I just really liked that movie.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Black Box Diaries

No Other Land

Porcelain War

Soundtrack to a Coup

Sugarcane

This has the potential to be the funniest category of the night. The Oscars are notoriously political when it comes to documentaries, so I think the Ukrainian war documentary Porcelain War will win because the simps in the Academy fall for this type of shit. The funniest outcome would be for the Palestinian documentary No Other Land to win because the presenter for this award is Gal Gadot…actress and former member of the Israeli Defense Forces. Watching Gadot have to give this award to Palestinian activists would be hysterically delicious …but it won’t happen for the same reason No Other Land has no distribution in the U.S. – because the people who run Hollywood (and our government) are Zionists or, at a minimum, Zionist adjacent.

WILL WIN: Porcelain War

SHOULD WIN: No Other Land

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

A Lien

Anuja

I’m Not a Robot

The Last Ranger

The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

I have no idea…

WILL WIN: A Lien

SHOULD WIN: No clue

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Death by Numbers

I am Ready, Warden

Incident

Instruments of a Beating Heart

The Only Girl in the Orchestra

I’m just picking based on the subject matter…which is exactly how the Academy members do it!

WILL WIN: I am Ready, Warden

SHOULD WIN: No idea

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Beautiful Men

In the Shadow of the Cypress

Magic Candles

Wander to Wonder

Yuck!

I’ve not seen any of these so I’m stabbing in the dark here.

WILL WIN: Magic Candles

SHOULD WIN: You’re guess is as good as mine.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Brutalist

Conclave

Emilia Perez

Wicked

The Wild Robot

Interesting category that could be a harbinger of bigger things to come for some movies. If Wicked wins, then it might have a good run in a bunch of categories. Same with The Brutalist and Conclave.

WILL WIN:  The Brutalist

SHOULD WIN:  The Brutalist

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

El Mal – Emilia Perez

The Journey – The Six Triple Eight

Like a Bird – Sing Sing

Mi Camino – Emilia Perez

Never Too late – Elton John

I think all of these songs are awful….but what do I know?

WILL WIN: El Mal – Emilia Perez

SHOULD WIN: None of them

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Brutalist

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Nosferatu

Wicked

Another interesting toss up category. I feel like Wicked could get some below the line love and these seems like a category it could win. That said, The Brutalist could start a big run here.

WILL WIN: Wicked

SHOULD WIN: Nosferatu

BEST SOUND

A Complete Unknown

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Perez

Wicked

The Wild Robot

I just want to say that I think it’s really stupid that a few years ago the Academy combined the Best Sound Editing and Best Sound Mixing categories into one. Disrespectful and dumb.

WILL WIN: A Complete Unknown

SHOULD WIN:  A Complete Unknown

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Brutalist

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Perez

Maria

Nosferatu

I think Nosferatu should definitely win this award going away but unfortunately won’t. I think that The Brutalist gets the gold.

WILL WIN: The Brutalist

SHOULD WIN: Nosferatu

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Gladiator II

Nosferatu

Wicked

I think Conclave and Nosferatu are head and shoulders above everything else in this category…which of course means they won’t win.

WILL WIN: Wicked

SHOULD WIN:  Nosferatu/Conclave

BEST FILM EDITING

Anora

The Brutalist

Conclave

Emilia Perez

Wicked

This category is a great indicator of how the night will go. Writer/director Sean baker also edited Anora…so if he wins then expect that film to do very well. On the other hand, there is a chance they give him an award here and then feel like that’s all he gets and spread the love elsewhere. Don’t find that non-prediction helpful? That makes two of us. Anyway…I think Anora wins but won’t be shocked if either The Brutalist or Conclave get the gold.

WILL WIN: Anora

SHOULD WIN: Anora

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

A Different Man

Emilia Perez

Nosferatu

The Substance

Wicked

I think Wicked could win here again because the simps in the Academy like shiny, shitty things. That said, this is a category where they can reward The Substance and I think they will.

WILL WIN: The Substance

SHOULD WIN: Nosferatu

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Alien: Romulus

Better Man

Dune: Part Two

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Wicked

A tough category…again this could be an indicator of a big below the line night for Wicked if it wins here. But…the craftsmen of Dune: Part Two are highly respected and they did do tremendous work. Toss up.

WILL WIN: Dune: Part Two

SHOULD WIN: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

And thus concludes my Annual Oscar Prediction Post. There’s a very good chance that I go 10-23 this year so my recommendation is that you don’t gamble actual money based on my predictions…that would be foolish. But feel free to follow along Oscar night and see how poorly I did this year… for as the great American financier Jeffrey Epstein once taught us…all good things must come to an end…and this year might see the ignominious end to my miraculous Oscar prediction winning streak.

p.s. Don’t look for me at the after party!!

©2025

The Brutalist: A Review - American Dreams and Nightmares

****THIS IS A SPOILER FREE REVIEW!! THIS REVIEW CONTAINS ZERO SPOILERS!!****

My Rating: 3.25 out of 5 stars

My Recommendation: SEE IT.  A dramatically uneven, cinematically stellar, ambitious movie about ambition that is not a great film but a film that wants to be great.

The Brutalist, written and directed by Brady Corbet, stars Adrien Brody as Laszlo Toth, a talented Jewish Hungarian architect who survives the Holocaust and comes to America to start a new life.

The film, which has garnered 10 Academy Award nominations, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress, is favored to dominate this year’s Oscars.

I have many thoughts on the philosophy and ideology expressed in The Brutalist, but will save that discussion for a second, more in-depth “analysis and commentary” article I will publish at a later date. For now, I will simply review the film.

The Brutalist is a film so cinematically ambitious as to be audacious. It is a film that asks a lot of big questions, and tackles a lot of big issues, and does so all on a miniscule $9 million budget, and a monumental three-hour-and-thirty-five-minute run time.

The film is exquisitely photographed using VistaVision, and has been released in both 35 mm and 70 mm. I watched it, twice, on a SAG screener in my house and was astonished at the cinematography by Lol Crawley – who is, in my mind, the undeniable star of the film.

Crawley’s camera movement, lighting and most of all his framing, are sublime. This is a small budget, arthouse film that looks and feels expansively epic, in both scope and scale, thanks to Crawley’s work.

The film is designed to question America and the American dream, and to give voice to not just the immigrant experience but the Jewish immigrant experience in particular. It deftly uses stock footage, newsreels and radio reports to set the stage and strengthen the not-so-subtle sub-text.

Writer/director/producer Brady Corbet has also spoken about the film being a metaphor for the filmmaking experience itself…which is plain to see. Filmmakers are, at least in some cases, artists who must navigate a cold and cruel capitalist system just to be able to make their art. Filmmakers aren’t painters who can buy a canvas and some paint and go to work. No, filmmakers need money to make their movie and therefore must get into bed with those that have it (in some cases…literally).

The same is true for architects like Laszlo Toth. An architect must have a benefactor…someone who has the desire to make a great building, the means to do so, but not the artistic vision and expertise to bring it to life.

The Brutalist as metaphor for the filmmaker’s plight is certainly insightful, if not a bit self-aggrandizing, and considering the film’s politics (which will be discussed in length in my second article) egregiously hypocritical.

Regardless of that, there can be no doubt that Brady Corbet had a big idea and was able to translate it onto the big screen. Kudos to him.

Not so good for him is that the film, which boasts a first half as good as any seen this year, stumbles badly in its heavy-handed second half. The film, which again, runs for three and a half hours, actually has an intermission…and it is after the intermission when it loses its grip on its narrative and its storytelling.

The biggest problem with The Brutalist is that it tries to do so much that it ends up doing not quite enough of anything.

For example, it is an immigrant story, an American capitalism story, a Jewish story, a Holocaust story, a love story, a sex story, an artist’s story and a drug addict’s story. The drug addict angle in particular is superfluous to the point of frivolous, as is the sex story, which does nothing to enhance the narrative but only confuse it.

A major problem for the film is the character of Erzsebet Toth, Laszlo’s wife who follows him to America. Erzsebet is played by the woefully miscast Felicity Jones, an actress I usually like quite a bit. Erzsebet’s arrival on the scene signals the end of the film’s tight grip on its drama, and the beginning of a rudderless wandering into the wasteland of dramatic doldrums.

The character of Erzsebet would have been better served never being seen, but rather as a sort of dream from Lazslo’s past never to be regained.

The rest of the cast are hit and miss.

Adrien Brody, who is nominated for a Best Actor Oscar for his work as Laszlo – a fictional character by the way, is good in the film. He has a lot to do and he definitely does it. I didn’t think his performance was transcendent, but I thought he did an admirable job. Considering the last-time I saw Brody act was when I recently watched the series Peaky Blinders, where he played an Italian gangster from New York in the 1920s…and it was one of the worst, most embarrassingly awful pieces of acting I’ve ever witnessed, and now he is probably going to win his second Best Actor Oscar, speaks to how insane Hollywood can be.

Guy Pearce is very good as Harrison Van Buren, the rich American who becomes enamored with Laszlo’s talent and hires him to build his dream project. Pearce really sinks his teeth into the role and never relinquishes his steely grip, devouring every scene he inhabits.

Other performances, like that of Alessandro Nivola as Laszlo’s friend Attila, and Joe Alwyn as Harry Van Buren Jr, seem to disappear the moment they wander onto screen. They are so weightless as to be non-existent.

There’s one final performance that is worth mentioning…and that is of Raffey Cassidy as Zsofia, Laszlo’s niece. What struck me about Cassidy’s performance is that she looks remarkably like Daniel Radcliffe, the actor who plays Harry Potter. So much so that I literally was wondering if Daniel Radcliffe was playing Zsofia in drag in some sort of arthouse tomfoolery – amusingly I wrestled with this question for quite a while as I watched. What is even weirder is that Raffey Cassidy, in real life and even as Zsofia, is a truly beautiful woman…which left me very, very confused. The bottom line though is that Raffey Cassidy is NOT Daniel Radcliffe, and Daniel Radcliffe is NOT Zsofia. Mystery solved.

The Brutalist intentionally calls to mind other ambitious films that, ironically enough, are about ambition, like Godfather II and There Will Be Blood. Unfortunately, The Brutalist shrinks exponentially in comparison to such cinematic greatness as Godfather II and There Will Be Blood.

The Brutalist’s biggest flaw, besides its over-abundant narrative, is that it gets so heavy-handed with its not-so-subtle symbolism in the second half of the film that it loses a great deal of its credibility, coherence and artistic good will.

The bottom line is that I am glad The Brutalist exists, and I’m glad Brady Corbet is so ambitious as to make it, but that doesn’t mean that it’s a great film.

I do not think The Brutalist is a great film, but I do believe it wants to be great, and is a great attempt to make a great film, and that makes it much more worthwhile than 99% of the garbage made nowadays.

If The Brutalist wins Best Picture at the Oscars I won’t be dismayed, even though I don’t think it’s the Best Picture I’ve seen this year. I will celebrate its win because hopefully it will allow for other filmmakers to take equally big swings when they get their turn at bat.

Brady Corbet took a big swing with The Brutalist and he flied out to right field just short of the warning track. No shame in that. Maybe the next guy, or maybe Brady Corbet the next time he gets up, will hit it out of the park, or off the wall, or into the gap for a double. Hell, at this point in cinema history I’d take a bloop single, a walk, or a hit by pitch over the strikes out that keep piling up.

Make no mistake…The Brutalist is infinitely better, and more worthwhile than recent Best Picture winners Nomadland, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and the god-awful CODA.

As for recommending this movie…I do recommend people give it a shot and watch it with an open mind. It will be, simply said, a bridge too far for most normal people. It’s expansive run time, challenging themes and numerous dramatic narratives, will be too much for normies to digest, especially since the film is not a cinematic classic like Godfather II or There Will Be Blood.

But just because I think most people won’t love it, or even like it, doesn’t mean I think people shouldn’t give it a shot. I didn’t love the film, but I admire its ambition, and I watched it twice.

So, if you have three and a half hours and want to wallow in lukewarm arthouse waters contained in a gloriously crafted, artisan bathtub, then give The Brutalist your attention. At the very least it will trigger discussions about both its quality and its philosophy/ideology…which are decidedly meaty topics for debate…and in my eyes a movie that triggers debate is definitely a movie worth watching.

©2025