97th Academy Awards: 2024 Oscar Predictions Post
/2024 OSCARS PREDICTIONS
The 97th Academy Awards are upon us and anyone with half a brain in their head and any semblance of a life doesn’t even remotely give a flying fuck.
Unfortunately, I do not meet the previously stated requirements…so here we are at my Oscar predictions post.
As long-time readers know I am the proud owner of the longest Oscar predictions winning streak in history…and even more remarkably, this is not just the longest winning streak in Oscar history, but the longest winning streak of any kind in any competition….EVER!
What’s it like to be the greatest Oscar predictor of all time? Thanks for asking…the reality is that it’s a blessing and a curse. It’s a blessing because being great at anything is a gift from God. It’s a curse because…well it’s the dumbest fucking thing in the world to be great at.
And truth be told…and this stays just between us…I really have no idea what I’m doing. Of course, that works to my benefit because the members of the Academy who vote on the Oscars have no idea what they’re doing either, so I guess that’s why I succeed in reading their diseased minds.
Every year the trade papers in Hollywood publish interviews with anonymous Academy members in the hopes of deciphering who will win the awards. These interviews are extraordinary because they always reveal Academy members as being the biggest dopes, dupes and dipshits on the planet.
It's nice to fantasize that Academy members are dedicated professionals who take their craft, their art, cinema and the film community seriously…and then you read these interviews and realize these people are lazy and entitled pieces of shit with the worst taste imaginable.
My favorite part is that these people get to see all the nominated movies for free…in their home…and they still don’t watch them, or they watch just fifteen minutes of them.
Then there’s the mindlessly political pricks who won’t vote for anything that doesn’t have the “correct”, and most obvious, politics. Yawn. This explains a great deal about how the Oscars work and why we get so many atrocious movies not just getting nominated, but winning big awards.
The truth is that the Oscars are nothing more than a popularity contest for the adult high school known as Hollywood. The expansion of the Academy membership in recent years in order to be more diverse and inclusive, has only heightened that sentiment.
Regardless of how ridiculous some members of the Academy are, and how diminished the Oscars have become…I still watch the movies and watch the Oscar telecast. Although if I’m being honest…there’s a very good chance that I will bail pretty early on the telecast because I’m on the East Coast and I’m an early riser. Missing the Oscars would’ve been inconceivable a few years ago…but not now. I am now indifferent to the Oscars and very protective of my precious sleep.
As for my Oscar predictions this year, I have to be honest…I have almost no idea how this year’s awards will play out. It’s been a strange year at the movies, and unfortunately not a particularly good one, so picking winners is a fool’s errand. But as you all know…I am nothing if not a fool.
So…on to my picks!!
BEST PICTURE
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Perez
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked
This is a rather underwhelming collection of films, only one of which, Anora, did I think was very good. Does that mean Anora will win? You’re guess is as good as mine. If Anora doesn’t win, then Conclave will…or at least that seems to be how the Academy is shaking out. There is a miniscule chance that A Complete Unknown sneaks in out of nowhere…but I wouldn’t bet on it. If Emilia Perez or Wicked win then we have officially entered the End Times.
WILL WIN: Anora
SHOULD WIN: Anora
BEST DIRECTOR
Sean Baker - Anora
Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
James Mangold – A Complete Unknown
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Perez
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
Ok…this is an interesting category. Baker won the Director’s Guild award, which should give him the leg up here…but don’t be shocked if Brady Corbet or dark horse James Mangold sneak in and steal it.
WILL WIN: Sean Baker - Anora
SHOULD WIN: Sean Baker
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
Timothee Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes - Conclave
Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice
Lots of hub-bub about Timothee Chalamet and his win at the SAG Awards last weekend…but Oscar voting was over so his speech and such will have no sway. This is really a two-man race between Chalamet and Brody, but if they split votes there could be a dark horse winner in Ralph Fiennes. My guess is that two-time Holocaust survivor Adrian Brody pulls it off (this is a great Nikki Glaser joke).
WILL WIN: Adrian Brody – The Brutalist
SHOULD WIN: Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascon – Emilia Perez
Mikey Madison – Anora
Demi Moore – The Substance
Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here
A three-woman race between the big favorite Demi Moore, the ingenue Mikey Madison and the international, dark horse candidate Fernanda Torres.
I think Demi Moore wins it because it’s a great “comeback” story and makes Academy members feel good about themselves for some reason. Personally, I think Moore is good in the film and gives a “brave” performance, I just think Mikey Madison’s performance is much better.
WILL WIN: Demi Moore – The Substance
SHOULD WIN: Mikey Madison - Anora
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande – Wicked
Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez
Zoe Saldana is the big favorite…but if there’s an upset it will come from Isabella Rossellini…and maybe, maybe, maybe…from Monica Barbaro.
WILL WIN: Zoe Saldana
SHOULD WIN: Monica Barbaro
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov – Anora
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice
I was not a fan of A Real Pain and not a fan of Kieran Culkin’s performance, but this shit is set in stone.
WILL WIN: Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
SHOULD WIN: Yura Borisov - Anora
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora – Sean Baker
The Brutalist – Brady Corbet
A Real Pain – Jesse Eisenberg
September 5 –
The Substance – Coralie Fargeat
This is a fascinating category…if Sean Baker wins this…there’s a real chance he could win four Oscars in one night (Picture, Director, Screenplay and Editing), which would be incredible…so incredible I don’t think it will happen. I think the Academy spreads the love and rewards one of their own Jesse Eisenberg with the Oscar here.
WILL WIN: Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain
SHOULD WIN: Sean Baker - Anora
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Perez
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing
Conclave is the frontrunner and presumptive winner…but if it doesn’t win then we might be in for a wild night.
WILL WIN: Conclave
SHOULD WIN: Conclave…I guess. I liked Sing Sing a lot but the script isn’t elite.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot
A fascinating category…The Wild Robot is in the lead but I actually think Flow is going to win it thanks to the international contingent in the Academy.
WILL WIN: Flow
SHOULD WIN: Flow
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Emilia Perez
Flow
The Girl with the Needle
I’m Still here
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Emilia Perez had this wrapped up a few months ago and then the Gascon scandal hit and…well…not so good for Emilia Perez after that. I now think the vociferous Brazilian contingent drags I’m Still Here over the finish line.
WILL WIN: I’m Still Here
SHOULD WIN: Flow – I just really liked that movie.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Black Box Diaries
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Soundtrack to a Coup
Sugarcane
This has the potential to be the funniest category of the night. The Oscars are notoriously political when it comes to documentaries, so I think the Ukrainian war documentary Porcelain War will win because the simps in the Academy fall for this type of shit. The funniest outcome would be for the Palestinian documentary No Other Land to win because the presenter for this award is Gal Gadot…actress and former member of the Israeli Defense Forces. Watching Gadot have to give this award to Palestinian activists would be hysterically delicious …but it won’t happen for the same reason No Other Land has no distribution in the U.S. – because the people who run Hollywood (and our government) are Zionists or, at a minimum, Zionist adjacent.
WILL WIN: Porcelain War
SHOULD WIN: No Other Land
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
A Lien
Anuja
I’m Not a Robot
The Last Ranger
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
I have no idea…
WILL WIN: A Lien
SHOULD WIN: No clue
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Death by Numbers
I am Ready, Warden
Incident
Instruments of a Beating Heart
The Only Girl in the Orchestra
I’m just picking based on the subject matter…which is exactly how the Academy members do it!
WILL WIN: I am Ready, Warden
SHOULD WIN: No idea
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Beautiful Men
In the Shadow of the Cypress
Magic Candles
Wander to Wonder
Yuck!
I’ve not seen any of these so I’m stabbing in the dark here.
WILL WIN: Magic Candles
SHOULD WIN: You’re guess is as good as mine.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Perez
Wicked
The Wild Robot
Interesting category that could be a harbinger of bigger things to come for some movies. If Wicked wins, then it might have a good run in a bunch of categories. Same with The Brutalist and Conclave.
WILL WIN: The Brutalist
SHOULD WIN: The Brutalist
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
El Mal – Emilia Perez
The Journey – The Six Triple Eight
Like a Bird – Sing Sing
Mi Camino – Emilia Perez
Never Too late – Elton John
I think all of these songs are awful….but what do I know?
WILL WIN: El Mal – Emilia Perez
SHOULD WIN: None of them
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked
Another interesting toss up category. I feel like Wicked could get some below the line love and these seems like a category it could win. That said, The Brutalist could start a big run here.
WILL WIN: Wicked
SHOULD WIN: Nosferatu
BEST SOUND
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Perez
Wicked
The Wild Robot
I just want to say that I think it’s really stupid that a few years ago the Academy combined the Best Sound Editing and Best Sound Mixing categories into one. Disrespectful and dumb.
WILL WIN: A Complete Unknown
SHOULD WIN: A Complete Unknown
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Perez
Maria
Nosferatu
I think Nosferatu should definitely win this award going away but unfortunately won’t. I think that The Brutalist gets the gold.
WILL WIN: The Brutalist
SHOULD WIN: Nosferatu
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Wicked
I think Conclave and Nosferatu are head and shoulders above everything else in this category…which of course means they won’t win.
WILL WIN: Wicked
SHOULD WIN: Nosferatu/Conclave
BEST FILM EDITING
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Perez
Wicked
This category is a great indicator of how the night will go. Writer/director Sean baker also edited Anora…so if he wins then expect that film to do very well. On the other hand, there is a chance they give him an award here and then feel like that’s all he gets and spread the love elsewhere. Don’t find that non-prediction helpful? That makes two of us. Anyway…I think Anora wins but won’t be shocked if either The Brutalist or Conclave get the gold.
WILL WIN: Anora
SHOULD WIN: Anora
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
A Different Man
Emilia Perez
Nosferatu
The Substance
Wicked
I think Wicked could win here again because the simps in the Academy like shiny, shitty things. That said, this is a category where they can reward The Substance and I think they will.
WILL WIN: The Substance
SHOULD WIN: Nosferatu
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alien: Romulus
Better Man
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Wicked
A tough category…again this could be an indicator of a big below the line night for Wicked if it wins here. But…the craftsmen of Dune: Part Two are highly respected and they did do tremendous work. Toss up.
WILL WIN: Dune: Part Two
SHOULD WIN: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
And thus concludes my Annual Oscar Prediction Post. There’s a very good chance that I go 10-23 this year so my recommendation is that you don’t gamble actual money based on my predictions…that would be foolish. But feel free to follow along Oscar night and see how poorly I did this year… for as the great American financier Jeffrey Epstein once taught us…all good things must come to an end…and this year might see the ignominious end to my miraculous Oscar prediction winning streak.
p.s. Don’t look for me at the after party!!
©2025