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The 96th Academy Awards: 2024 Oscar Predictions

96TH ACADEMY AWARDS: 2024 OSCAR PREDICTIONS

It’s that time of year once again…when all the self-righteous degenerates and pedophiles of Hollywood gather together to celebrate how wonderful they are…that’s right…the Academy Awards are here!!

For the first time in the last five years, I find myself mildly interested in the most nauseatingly narcissistic of awards shows just because I actually liked a few of the movies, and especially because I liked the front runner Oppenheimer.

 I would enjoy Oppenheimer going nuclear on the competition at the Oscars for a variety of reasons.

1.   I liked the movie.

2.   I like Christopher Nolan.

3.   I like that it’s incredibly well-made.

4.   I like that it’s a movie made for adults that is three hours long and it still made nearly a billion dollars.

5.   I want it to win so that they make more movies like it.

It seemed that the Academy Awards, and Hollywood, over the last few years were quickly hurtling toward their well-earned demise as a brief glance at the last four Best Picture winners reveals a poopoo platter of putrid movies….Nomadland (2020), Coda (2021) and Everything Everywhere All At Once (2023)…YIKES!

But this year we have a bunch of films nominated for Best Picture that are actually decent movies, Oppenheimer chief among them. So maybe this signals that the movie business and the art of cinema are, if not climbing out of their graves, then at least no longer digging.

Of course, I’m not going to get too optimistic as Hollywood is very good at shitting all over themselves in any given situation, so I will just wait and see how this year goes…and if there is a next year, then how next year goes.

But for now…this is a solid Best Picture contingent. The other categories? Well, I admit it seems like slim pickings in many of them, and the closer you look the less pretty the picture of this year at the movies looks, but for now I’m just going to enjoy an actual movie – Oppenheimer, being the belle of the ball at the Academy Awards.

As for the Academy Awards…as longtime readers know I have won a record setting 35 straight Oscar pools. My domination in this field is less a testament to my brilliance than to the fact that I have no friends and therefore am competing only against myself…and I’m an idiot so it’s easy to for me to outwit me.

Anyway…enough of my rambling…let’s get on with it!! Here are my official picks for this year’s Oscar winners.

BEST PICTURE

American Fiction

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

This is a pretty easy category as Oppenheimer has been the front runner since it hit big screens last summer and hasn’t wavered even a little bit. The movie is everything that Hollywood used to stand for and celebrate…and will reap the rewards.

As for the other films, Barbie and Maestro are dogshit and should not be nominated…and neither should Killers of the Flower Moon. But beyond that the films are all good to very good.

Will Win: Oppenheimer

Should Win: Oppenheimer

BEST DIRECTOR

Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall

Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon

Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer

Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things

Jonathon Glazer – The Zone of Intertest

This is Christopher Nolan’s year. This Best Picture/Best Director Oscar win is less a celebration of Nolan than a coronation. He is the ultimate blockbuster auteur…and frankly…the only blockbuster auteur we have. No one is beating him for Best Director.

Will Win: Christopher Nolan Oppenheimer

Should Win: Christopher Nolan

BEST ACTOR

Bradley Cooper – Maestro

Colman Domingo – Rustin

Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers

Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer

Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction

This is a thin category as Domingo Colman and Bradley Cooper have zero business being nominated…but then again, the year is not filled with a plethora of sterling performances. Cillian Murphy does excellent work as the title character in Oppenheimer. He’s not a movie star and he’s not an acting star, he’s just a decent, quiet, likable guy who crushed a difficult role.

Will Win: Cillian Murphy Oppenheimer

Could Win: Paul Giamatti The Holdovers – Giamatti has a shot to pull off the upset, but it’s a long shot. Not impossible, but very difficult.

Should Win: Cillian Murphy

BEST ACTRESS

Annette Bening – Nyad

Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

Sandra Huller – Anatomy of a Fall

Carey Mulligan – Maestro

Emma Stone – Poor Things

Another strange category as Annette Bening and Carey Mulligan are actively atrocious in their performances. Sandra Huller is terrific in Anatomy of a Fall. Lily Gladstone is just…ok…in what is really a supporting role in Killers of the Flower Moon. Emma Stone gives one of the greatest performances of the last 25 years in Poor Things and should win her second-best Actress statuette. But she won’t because the Oscars are about virtue signaling their Diversity, Equity and Inclusion bona fides as much as anything else. Lily Gladstone will be the first Native American woman to win an Oscar, and to Academy members that means a lot, despite the fact that her work is unworthy of the award…and Emma Stone’s work is so transcendently sublime.

Will Win: Lily Gladstone Killers of the Flower Moon

Could Win: Emma Stone Poor Things – Stone has a chance, and I hope she wins, but I just think that the Diversity Cult wins the day over meritocracy.

Should Win: Emma Stone

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction

Robert DeNiro – Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling – Barbie

Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things

Downey is a great reclamation/redemption story. The arc of his career is fascinating, and his being the lynchpin in the MCU and how much money those movies made for Hollywood, and Downey’s charm and resilience, are what make him the unquestioned favorite to win this award. Oh…and he also does exceptional work in Oppenheimer, so that helps too.

Will Win: Robert Downey Jr Oppenheimer

Could Win: Ryan Gosling Barbie – Gosling is beloved but not as beloved as Downey. Gosling’s time will come…just not this year.

Should Win: Robert Downey Jr

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple

America Ferrera – Barbie

Jodie Foster – Nyad

Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

This is an incredibly weak field, and Randolph is far and away the best performance and will without a doubt win the award…and deservedly so.

Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph

Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anatomy of a Fall

The Holdovers

Maestro

May December

Past Lives

Tricky category. I think Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall), who is also nominated in Best Director, gets the nod, as the Academy likes to reward directors with a screenplay award when they’re not getting a director’s award.

Will Win: Justine Triet Anatomy of a Fall

Could Win: Celine Song Past Lives – There’s a lot of affection for this film but I think Anatomy of a Fall has the momentum.

Should Win: Justine Triet

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

American Fiction

Barbie

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

Easily the most fascinating of all the categories. This category could be an indicator of an absolute blowout for Oppenheimer if Nolan wins the award. Or it could be another chance for the Academy to signal its virtue by rewarding Cord Jefferson and American Fiction, which isn’t worthy but deals with race and the Oscars love that sort of thing. But what I think will happen is that the Academy will reward Greta Gerwig for Barbie as a way to show they’re not sexist, and to acknowledge the “importance” (*barf*) of Barbie and its success. It will also be Gerwig’s first Oscar win after four nominations.

Will Win: Greta Gerwig Barbie

Could Win: Cord Jefferson American Fiction/Christopher Nolan Oppenheimer

Should Win: Christopher Nolan Oppenheimer

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

The Boy and the Heron

Elemental

Nimona

Robot Dreams

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

This is a two-way race between Miyazaki’s The Boy and the Heron and the Spider-Verse movie. I think it goes to Miyazaki because he is an acknowledged master and this may (or may not) be his final film. And the first Spider-Verse movie won this category, and there is another Spider-Verse movie coming, the final in the trilogy, so that gives Academy voters a chance to not vote for this one and wait for next time. Regardless…I think Miyazaki wins the award…which will make me very, very happy, as I love his films.

Will Win: The Boy and the Heron

Could Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Should Win: The Boy and the Heron

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Io Capitano

Perfect Days

Society of the Snow

The Teachers’ Lounge

The Zone of Interest

This is no competition at all. The Zone of Interest is nominated for Best Picture and Best Director as well as Best International Feature. It won’t win the first two, but it sure as hell will win this one. It’s a terrific arthouse movie, one of the very best films of the year. It is unbeatable in this category. Now, if Anatomy of a Fall had been France’s official selection and were in the running here…then this would be a barnburner of a category…but it isn’t…so it isn’t.

Will Win: The Zone of Interest

Should Win: The Zone of Interest

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Bobi Wine: The People’s President

The Eternal Memory

Four Daughters

To Kill a Tiger

20 Days in Mariupol

In an act of predictable and pretentious political posturing, 20 Days in Mariupol will win this award and easily. Yawn.

Will Win: 20 Days in Mairupol

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

When picking the short categories you have to focus on two things…1. Is someone famous involved. 2. What is the most compelling “agenda” on display which will satiate the Academy’s self-righteousness. The ABCs of Book Banning seems like a perfect fit for the self-righteous, politically-motivated, virtue signaling crowd in the Academy.

Will Win: The ABCs of Book Banning

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

This short category fulfills the “famous person” requirement for Academy interest. Wes Anderson has never won an Academy Award. This seems like a good way for the Academy to finally give him a nod. It also helps that his short is very, very good.

Will Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

This short satisfies BOTH the famous person and agenda requirements as Sean Lennon and Yoko Ono are featured and it’s anti-war.

Will Win: The War is Over!

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

American Fiction

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

A mildly interesting category. Goransson (Oppenheimer) should win this easily, and deservedly so, but John Williams (Indiana Jones) is a Hollywood institution and he’s 91 years old, so there’s always the chance the Oscars bestow a thank-you-for-your-service Oscar to him in this category. In the same way, Robbie Robertson (Killers of the Flower Moon) died this past year, so the sympathy vote could go his way and he could win in an upset. Anything is possible, but I think Oppenheimer is in for a big night and this category will be a leading indicator.

Will Win: Ludwig Goransson Oppenheimer

Could Win: John Williams Indiana Jones/Robbie Robertson Killers of the Flower Moon

Should Win: Ludwig Goransson Oppenheimer

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

The Academy wants to reward barbie and this category is a good place to do it because it also gives them a chance to attract and satisfy younger viewers. Billie Eilish fills the bill on both counts.

Will Win: Billie Eilish Barbie

Could Win: I’m Just Ken Barbie

Should Win: I’m Just Ken Barbie

BEST SOUND

The Creator

Maestro

MI Dead Reckoning

Oppenheimer

The Zone of Interest

Another bellwether category. If Oppenheimer wins this it will signal a huge night for the Team Nolan…but if The Zone of Interest wins, which is very, very possible, then it signals that Oppenheimer will have a good night, but not a great one. I have flip flopped on this category a dozen times and am still not sure. But I guess I’ll go with the mild upset and pick The Zone of Interest. That said, I won’t be upset if Oppenheimer wins.

Will Win: The Zone of Interest

Could Win: Oppenheimer

Should Win: Oppenheimer or The Zone of Interest – They are both exceedingly well done.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Let’s be clear…if Oppenheimer wins this award then it is going to dominate the Oscars in the most epic and historical of ways. I don’t think it wins here though as this seems like a two-way race between Barbie and Poor Things. I think Poor Things is much more deserving of the award and will win it, but won’t be surprised if Barbie gets the nod.

Will Win: Poor Things

Could Win: Barbie

Should Win: Poor Things

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Edward Lachman - El Conde

Rodrigo Prieto - Killers of the Flower Moon

Matthew Libatique - Maestro

Hoyte vna Hoytema - Oppenheimer

Robbie Ryan - Poor Things

Hoyte van Hoytema (Oppenheimer) is one of the most respected cinematographers working today who hasn’t won an Oscar. I think that changes this year. There is a very outside chance that Robbie Ryan wins for his spectacular work on Poor Things…but that seems unlikely. Chalk another one up to the Oppenheimer juggernaut.

Will Win: Hoyte van Hoytema Oppenheimer

Should Win: Hoyte van Hoytema Oppenheimer

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR STYLING

Golda

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Society of the Snow

I think this is a battle between Maestro and Poor Things. If Oppenheimer wins here then holy shit we are in for an epic landslide of Oscars. I don’t think that happens though, as Maestro gets the nod over Poor Things.

Will win: Maestro

Could Win: Poor Things

Should Win: Poor Things/Maestro – As much as I loathed Maestro…the old man makeup in that movie was astounding.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Barbie and Poor Things square off once again, and Poor Things gets the win. If Barbie wins, which is not impossible, it could be a signal that the film will win a respectable amount of categories like Production Design and Costume Design.

Will Win: Poor Things

Could Win: Barbie

Should Win: Poor Things

BEST FILM EDITING

Anatomy of a Fall

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

I think this is a slam dunk for Oppenheimer. If anything else wins, like Anatomy of a Fall, that is a strong signal that Oppenheimer will have a tough night outside of Best Picture and Best Director.

Will Win: Oppenheimer

Should Win: Oppenheimer

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

The Creator

Godzilla Minus One

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Mission: Impossible

Napoleon

I think this is a pretty close category but that Godzilla Minus One will win. First off, the effects in the film are outstanding. Secondly, the effects team and the entire production have been out there celebrating their nomination. And third, the film was surprisingly very successful for a foreign film in the American market. For all these reasons, I think Godzilla Minus One wins the award…and frankly, rightfully so.

Will Win: Godzilla Minus One

Should Win: Godzilla Minus One

So that’s it…those are my Oscar predictions. I have Oppenheimer winning seven awards and with a very real chance to win nine. Maybe I’m wrong…but who cares? The real award, the most-presitgious award, the one that Hollywood insiders truly care about, is the Mickey Awards™…and they come next weekend!! So stay tuned!!

Until then, enjoy the Oscars and hopefully winning your Oscar pool!

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