The 96th Academy Awards: 2024 Oscar Predictions
/96TH ACADEMY AWARDS: 2024 OSCAR PREDICTIONS
It’s that time of year once again…when all the self-righteous degenerates and pedophiles of Hollywood gather together to celebrate how wonderful they are…that’s right…the Academy Awards are here!!
For the first time in the last five years, I find myself mildly interested in the most nauseatingly narcissistic of awards shows just because I actually liked a few of the movies, and especially because I liked the front runner Oppenheimer.
I would enjoy Oppenheimer going nuclear on the competition at the Oscars for a variety of reasons.
1. I liked the movie.
2. I like Christopher Nolan.
3. I like that it’s incredibly well-made.
4. I like that it’s a movie made for adults that is three hours long and it still made nearly a billion dollars.
5. I want it to win so that they make more movies like it.
It seemed that the Academy Awards, and Hollywood, over the last few years were quickly hurtling toward their well-earned demise as a brief glance at the last four Best Picture winners reveals a poopoo platter of putrid movies….Nomadland (2020), Coda (2021) and Everything Everywhere All At Once (2023)…YIKES!
But this year we have a bunch of films nominated for Best Picture that are actually decent movies, Oppenheimer chief among them. So maybe this signals that the movie business and the art of cinema are, if not climbing out of their graves, then at least no longer digging.
Of course, I’m not going to get too optimistic as Hollywood is very good at shitting all over themselves in any given situation, so I will just wait and see how this year goes…and if there is a next year, then how next year goes.
But for now…this is a solid Best Picture contingent. The other categories? Well, I admit it seems like slim pickings in many of them, and the closer you look the less pretty the picture of this year at the movies looks, but for now I’m just going to enjoy an actual movie – Oppenheimer, being the belle of the ball at the Academy Awards.
As for the Academy Awards…as longtime readers know I have won a record setting 35 straight Oscar pools. My domination in this field is less a testament to my brilliance than to the fact that I have no friends and therefore am competing only against myself…and I’m an idiot so it’s easy to for me to outwit me.
Anyway…enough of my rambling…let’s get on with it!! Here are my official picks for this year’s Oscar winners.
BEST PICTURE
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
This is a pretty easy category as Oppenheimer has been the front runner since it hit big screens last summer and hasn’t wavered even a little bit. The movie is everything that Hollywood used to stand for and celebrate…and will reap the rewards.
As for the other films, Barbie and Maestro are dogshit and should not be nominated…and neither should Killers of the Flower Moon. But beyond that the films are all good to very good.
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Should Win: Oppenheimer
BEST DIRECTOR
Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall
Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things
Jonathon Glazer – The Zone of Intertest
This is Christopher Nolan’s year. This Best Picture/Best Director Oscar win is less a celebration of Nolan than a coronation. He is the ultimate blockbuster auteur…and frankly…the only blockbuster auteur we have. No one is beating him for Best Director.
Will Win: Christopher Nolan Oppenheimer
Should Win: Christopher Nolan
BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper – Maestro
Colman Domingo – Rustin
Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction
This is a thin category as Domingo Colman and Bradley Cooper have zero business being nominated…but then again, the year is not filled with a plethora of sterling performances. Cillian Murphy does excellent work as the title character in Oppenheimer. He’s not a movie star and he’s not an acting star, he’s just a decent, quiet, likable guy who crushed a difficult role.
Will Win: Cillian Murphy Oppenheimer
Could Win: Paul Giamatti The Holdovers – Giamatti has a shot to pull off the upset, but it’s a long shot. Not impossible, but very difficult.
Should Win: Cillian Murphy
BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening – Nyad
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Huller – Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan – Maestro
Emma Stone – Poor Things
Another strange category as Annette Bening and Carey Mulligan are actively atrocious in their performances. Sandra Huller is terrific in Anatomy of a Fall. Lily Gladstone is just…ok…in what is really a supporting role in Killers of the Flower Moon. Emma Stone gives one of the greatest performances of the last 25 years in Poor Things and should win her second-best Actress statuette. But she won’t because the Oscars are about virtue signaling their Diversity, Equity and Inclusion bona fides as much as anything else. Lily Gladstone will be the first Native American woman to win an Oscar, and to Academy members that means a lot, despite the fact that her work is unworthy of the award…and Emma Stone’s work is so transcendently sublime.
Will Win: Lily Gladstone Killers of the Flower Moon
Could Win: Emma Stone Poor Things – Stone has a chance, and I hope she wins, but I just think that the Diversity Cult wins the day over meritocracy.
Should Win: Emma Stone
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction
Robert DeNiro – Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling – Barbie
Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things
Downey is a great reclamation/redemption story. The arc of his career is fascinating, and his being the lynchpin in the MCU and how much money those movies made for Hollywood, and Downey’s charm and resilience, are what make him the unquestioned favorite to win this award. Oh…and he also does exceptional work in Oppenheimer, so that helps too.
Will Win: Robert Downey Jr Oppenheimer
Could Win: Ryan Gosling Barbie – Gosling is beloved but not as beloved as Downey. Gosling’s time will come…just not this year.
Should Win: Robert Downey Jr
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
America Ferrera – Barbie
Jodie Foster – Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers
This is an incredibly weak field, and Randolph is far and away the best performance and will without a doubt win the award…and deservedly so.
Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives
Tricky category. I think Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall), who is also nominated in Best Director, gets the nod, as the Academy likes to reward directors with a screenplay award when they’re not getting a director’s award.
Will Win: Justine Triet Anatomy of a Fall
Could Win: Celine Song Past Lives – There’s a lot of affection for this film but I think Anatomy of a Fall has the momentum.
Should Win: Justine Triet
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Easily the most fascinating of all the categories. This category could be an indicator of an absolute blowout for Oppenheimer if Nolan wins the award. Or it could be another chance for the Academy to signal its virtue by rewarding Cord Jefferson and American Fiction, which isn’t worthy but deals with race and the Oscars love that sort of thing. But what I think will happen is that the Academy will reward Greta Gerwig for Barbie as a way to show they’re not sexist, and to acknowledge the “importance” (*barf*) of Barbie and its success. It will also be Gerwig’s first Oscar win after four nominations.
Will Win: Greta Gerwig Barbie
Could Win: Cord Jefferson American Fiction/Christopher Nolan Oppenheimer
Should Win: Christopher Nolan Oppenheimer
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
This is a two-way race between Miyazaki’s The Boy and the Heron and the Spider-Verse movie. I think it goes to Miyazaki because he is an acknowledged master and this may (or may not) be his final film. And the first Spider-Verse movie won this category, and there is another Spider-Verse movie coming, the final in the trilogy, so that gives Academy voters a chance to not vote for this one and wait for next time. Regardless…I think Miyazaki wins the award…which will make me very, very happy, as I love his films.
Will Win: The Boy and the Heron
Could Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Should Win: The Boy and the Heron
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Io Capitano
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Teachers’ Lounge
The Zone of Interest
This is no competition at all. The Zone of Interest is nominated for Best Picture and Best Director as well as Best International Feature. It won’t win the first two, but it sure as hell will win this one. It’s a terrific arthouse movie, one of the very best films of the year. It is unbeatable in this category. Now, if Anatomy of a Fall had been France’s official selection and were in the running here…then this would be a barnburner of a category…but it isn’t…so it isn’t.
Will Win: The Zone of Interest
Should Win: The Zone of Interest
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol
In an act of predictable and pretentious political posturing, 20 Days in Mariupol will win this award and easily. Yawn.
Will Win: 20 Days in Mairupol
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
When picking the short categories you have to focus on two things…1. Is someone famous involved. 2. What is the most compelling “agenda” on display which will satiate the Academy’s self-righteousness. The ABCs of Book Banning seems like a perfect fit for the self-righteous, politically-motivated, virtue signaling crowd in the Academy.
Will Win: The ABCs of Book Banning
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
This short category fulfills the “famous person” requirement for Academy interest. Wes Anderson has never won an Academy Award. This seems like a good way for the Academy to finally give him a nod. It also helps that his short is very, very good.
Will Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
This short satisfies BOTH the famous person and agenda requirements as Sean Lennon and Yoko Ono are featured and it’s anti-war.
Will Win: The War is Over!
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
A mildly interesting category. Goransson (Oppenheimer) should win this easily, and deservedly so, but John Williams (Indiana Jones) is a Hollywood institution and he’s 91 years old, so there’s always the chance the Oscars bestow a thank-you-for-your-service Oscar to him in this category. In the same way, Robbie Robertson (Killers of the Flower Moon) died this past year, so the sympathy vote could go his way and he could win in an upset. Anything is possible, but I think Oppenheimer is in for a big night and this category will be a leading indicator.
Will Win: Ludwig Goransson Oppenheimer
Could Win: John Williams Indiana Jones/Robbie Robertson Killers of the Flower Moon
Should Win: Ludwig Goransson Oppenheimer
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
The Academy wants to reward barbie and this category is a good place to do it because it also gives them a chance to attract and satisfy younger viewers. Billie Eilish fills the bill on both counts.
Will Win: Billie Eilish Barbie
Could Win: I’m Just Ken Barbie
Should Win: I’m Just Ken Barbie
BEST SOUND
The Creator
Maestro
MI Dead Reckoning
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
Another bellwether category. If Oppenheimer wins this it will signal a huge night for the Team Nolan…but if The Zone of Interest wins, which is very, very possible, then it signals that Oppenheimer will have a good night, but not a great one. I have flip flopped on this category a dozen times and am still not sure. But I guess I’ll go with the mild upset and pick The Zone of Interest. That said, I won’t be upset if Oppenheimer wins.
Will Win: The Zone of Interest
Could Win: Oppenheimer
Should Win: Oppenheimer or The Zone of Interest – They are both exceedingly well done.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Let’s be clear…if Oppenheimer wins this award then it is going to dominate the Oscars in the most epic and historical of ways. I don’t think it wins here though as this seems like a two-way race between Barbie and Poor Things. I think Poor Things is much more deserving of the award and will win it, but won’t be surprised if Barbie gets the nod.
Will Win: Poor Things
Could Win: Barbie
Should Win: Poor Things
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Edward Lachman - El Conde
Rodrigo Prieto - Killers of the Flower Moon
Matthew Libatique - Maestro
Hoyte vna Hoytema - Oppenheimer
Robbie Ryan - Poor Things
Hoyte van Hoytema (Oppenheimer) is one of the most respected cinematographers working today who hasn’t won an Oscar. I think that changes this year. There is a very outside chance that Robbie Ryan wins for his spectacular work on Poor Things…but that seems unlikely. Chalk another one up to the Oppenheimer juggernaut.
Will Win: Hoyte van Hoytema Oppenheimer
Should Win: Hoyte van Hoytema Oppenheimer
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR STYLING
Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
I think this is a battle between Maestro and Poor Things. If Oppenheimer wins here then holy shit we are in for an epic landslide of Oscars. I don’t think that happens though, as Maestro gets the nod over Poor Things.
Will win: Maestro
Could Win: Poor Things
Should Win: Poor Things/Maestro – As much as I loathed Maestro…the old man makeup in that movie was astounding.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Barbie and Poor Things square off once again, and Poor Things gets the win. If Barbie wins, which is not impossible, it could be a signal that the film will win a respectable amount of categories like Production Design and Costume Design.
Will Win: Poor Things
Could Win: Barbie
Should Win: Poor Things
BEST FILM EDITING
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
I think this is a slam dunk for Oppenheimer. If anything else wins, like Anatomy of a Fall, that is a strong signal that Oppenheimer will have a tough night outside of Best Picture and Best Director.
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Should Win: Oppenheimer
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible
Napoleon
I think this is a pretty close category but that Godzilla Minus One will win. First off, the effects in the film are outstanding. Secondly, the effects team and the entire production have been out there celebrating their nomination. And third, the film was surprisingly very successful for a foreign film in the American market. For all these reasons, I think Godzilla Minus One wins the award…and frankly, rightfully so.
Will Win: Godzilla Minus One
Should Win: Godzilla Minus One
So that’s it…those are my Oscar predictions. I have Oppenheimer winning seven awards and with a very real chance to win nine. Maybe I’m wrong…but who cares? The real award, the most-presitgious award, the one that Hollywood insiders truly care about, is the Mickey Awards™…and they come next weekend!! So stay tuned!!
Until then, enjoy the Oscars and hopefully winning your Oscar pool!
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